Artificial intelligence has been one of the most powerful investment themes of the decade, but lately investors have begun questioning the profits that will come from it. Their concerns matter. Many of the world's largest technology companies are spending extraordinary amounts of capital building data centers, purchasing semiconductors, and developing increasingly sophisticated AI models.

Global financial markets have experienced important transitions over the past thirty days. The dominant narratives shifted away from energy-driven inflation shocks to geopolitical stability. While simultaneously, investors pivoted from artificial intelligence (AI) euphoria to capital expenditure skepticism. Although much regarding market fundamentals remains unchanged, market leadership and investor expectations evolved considerably in a relatively short period.

A transformative shift occurred as a sharp divergence between a generational boom in artificial intelligence and a deep energy crisis began to resolve with a historic diplomatic peace deal. While equity valuations extended to break previous records in the United States and in tech-heavy Asian markets, the global economy is now emerging from the stress of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which had removed millions of oil barrels from global and daily supplies.

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated sharply in April, triggering one of the largest global energy supply shocks in modern history. The disruption removed millions of barrels of oil from daily supply, tightening global markets almost immediately.

The war in Iran has heightened uncertainty in the global economy, with hostilities materially disrupting global trade, energy flows, and capital allocations. These effects have been particularly evident in commodity markets. Oil prices surged sharply, while gold prices declined, an unusual relationship that may reflect sovereign nations liquidating gold to finance rising energy costs. 

Recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East have unsettled global markets, particularly energy markets. A series of attacks against key US and Israeli sites, following earlier strikes on Iran that killed several senior leaders, effectively halted marine transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman along Iran’s southern coast.

The start of 2026 has seen a dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape following the US. The early weeks of 2026 have seen unusually strong demand for gold and other physical metals as investors respond to a weakening US dollar and heightened global uncertainty. Gold has advanced steadily, while silver, supported by its essential role in electronics, semiconductors, and medical technologies, has risen sharply over the past year.

The start of 2026 has seen a dramatic shift in the geopolitical landscape following the US military intervention in Venezuela. The capture of Nicolás Maduro, who now faces narco-terrorism charges in New York, represents a significant implementation of the Monroe Doctrine, aimed at reasserting US influence in the Western Hemisphere. While these headlines are historic, their immediate impact on global capital markets remains surprisingly contained.